Every one of the five boroughs pulled back on building permits this week, and that's worth a beat on its own. But look at the money behind those filings, and Brooklyn stands out for the wrong reason.
DOB's rolling 30-day permit count came in at 11,936 filings as of September 6 — down 537 from the same 30-day window measured just a day earlier, a 4.3% slide. Manhattan lost 206 filings, down 4.6%. Brooklyn lost 157, down 4.5%. Queens lost 101, down 4.0%. The Bronx lost 53, down 4.0%. Staten Island lost 20, down 3.3%. Every borough moved the same direction. That part isn't the story.
“A permit count that drops 4.5% sounds like a mild breather. A dollar value that drops 9.6% in the same window says some real money just walked off the pipeline.”
The story is what happened to the dollars behind those filings. Brooklyn's permit count fell 4.5% — but its total filed construction value fell 9.6%, from $624.7 million down to $564.5 million. That's more than double the rate its count dropped. Compare that to the Bronx, where the count fell 4.0% but the dollar value barely moved, down just 1.8%, from $524.4 million to $514.9 million.
Same direction, different engine. In the Bronx, it looks like the small stuff is thinning out — routine alterations, minor work permits — while the borough's bigger jobs stay on the books. In Brooklyn, it looks like the opposite. The borough is losing its big-ticket filings faster than its small ones. A permit count that drops 4.5% sounds like a mild breather. A dollar value that drops 9.6% in the same window says some real money just walked off the pipeline.
If you're a GC or a sub who tracks Brooklyn permit filings to build a bid list, don't read the headline count and assume the borough just went quiet. Pull DOB NOW and check what actually dropped off, because on this data it's disproportionately the bigger jobs — the ones worth chasing.
One caveat worth saying plainly: this is a 30-day rolling window, not a single week's activity. It moves when an old day rolls off the back end as much as when a new one gets added up front, so one day's shift isn't automatically a trend. But when every borough moves the same direction and Brooklyn's dollars move twice as fast as its count, that's not noise to shrug off — that's a borough worth a second look before you spend next month's estimating hours there. (Source: NYC Department of Buildings permit issuance data, NYC Open Data.)