Across 1,000 tracked bid results, the average low bid now comes in 4.7% below the engineer's estimate — contractors, on average, are bidding under what agencies expect to pay.
That gap held exactly flat from the prior cycle's 1,000-result sample, as did the average spread between the low and next-closest bid, which sits at 22.8%, and the average bidder count per job, at 8.3 firms.
“A stable estimate-to-low gap paired with a stable bidder count is a different signal than either number moving alone.”
New Jersey's Department of Transportation remains the single largest agency by result count in the sample, at 101 of the 1,000 tracked results. NYC School Construction Authority follows at 42, and MTA Construction & Development at 21 — all three held their exact counts from the prior cycle.
A stable estimate-to-low gap paired with a stable bidder count is a different signal than either number moving alone. If competition per job were loosening, you'd expect the spread or the bidder count to drift along with it — instead both numbers are frozen, which reads as a market that found its current level rather than one still adjusting.
What this means for you: If you're estimating against an agency's published budget number right now, the data says bidding roughly 5% under that figure is where the market is clearing — not a sign to chase the number lower or higher based on recent volatility, because there isn't any. How we count: These figures come from the public bid postings and agency bid results on The RFI Wire's board and, where filings are cited, NYC Department of Buildings job filings via NYC Open Data. Read them as the market's direction, not an official total.