Construction layoffs just hit their lowest level since 2000, and that number is worth more to an estimator than any forecast.
The jobs report shows construction layoffs at a 26-year low, according to Construction Dive's analysis of the latest federal data. That's a national figure, not a New York one, but it lines up with what this desk has been tracking locally all year: bidder counts up, spreads tightening, and firms chasing work instead of sitting on it.
Here's why that matters for a New York GC or sub: a market where nobody's getting laid off is a market where nobody's hungry for a job at any price. Low layoffs mean crews are staying put, which means the labor pool available to jump on your next award is thinner than it was two years ago. If you've noticed sub quotes running higher or slower to come back this fall, this is part of why — it's not just material costs, it's that fewer guys are sitting on the bench waiting for the phone to ring.
The flip side is real too: a market this tight rewards firms that can actually staff a job on schedule. If your outfit has a stable crew and a track record of finishing on time, that's worth more in a bid room right now than it was in a looser labor market. Price it that way.
Watch your own bid tabs against this backdrop — if spreads keep narrowing the way As-Built has been tracking on our own data, a tight labor market is one of the reasons why.